A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
