A mere 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery berated him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his performances were a sign or a cause of Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. When Rogers curled home his second to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician ripped off his coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, are somehow only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, while the victories have stacked up.
As per the data, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a side that have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look weirdly vulnerable – however currently the margins are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals before hoping Rogers to rescue them with some precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again when facing United.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those matches.
A reversion to average may well be the biggest rival the club have to face in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is another reality in which, rather than results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger may rediscover the player he was in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it appears so improbable. As the match-winner faced the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
